The South African Weather Service (SAWS) has issued multiple warnings for disruptive rainfall, cold, and wind across South Africa's southern provinces, as a cut-off low (COL) pressure system continues to affect the region since Wednesday. The warnings include an Orange Level 8 for the eastern Garden Route and South Coast up to East London, an Orange Level 5 between East London and Morgan Bay, and a Yellow Level 4 for the eastern Western Cape. SAWS stated that "Very cold, wet and windy conditions are expected over the Eastern Cape, the central and eastern interior of the Western Cape, as well as the southern parts of the Namakwa District in the Northern Cape." Light snowfall is also anticipated, with SAWS reporting, "Light snowfall is expected over the mountain tops of the central and eastern Western Cape and the higher-lying areas of the southern Namakwa District." The severe weather, encompassing disruptive rain and damaging winds, is expected to continue into Thursday.
Widespread Warnings Issued
The South African Weather Service (SAWS) has issued a Yellow Level 2 Warning for disruptive snowfall over the northern high-lying areas of the Eastern Cape, anticipating icy roads and potential traffic disruptions. SAWS also issued a Yellow Level 4 Warning for wind and waves between Cape Point and Plettenberg Bay, cautioning that navigation at sea may become difficult and small vessels could take on water. Additionally, a Yellow Level 2 Warning has been issued for severe thunderstorms, which may bring heavy downpours leading to localised flooding of susceptible roads, settlements, and low-lying bridges or areas. These storms could also produce large amounts of small hail and excessive lightning. SAWS indicated that these conditions may lead to the closure of major roads and pose a danger to life from fast-moving streams and rivers. While South Africa experiences cold fronts, heat advisories have been issued in parts of Arizona, US, with temperatures expected to climb into the high 30s Celsius before shifting eastward.
Impacts and Previous Events
Severe weather, including disruptive rain, flash flooding, mudslides, rockfalls, and extensive damage to infrastructure and property, significantly affected the Western and Eastern Cape provinces between May 5 and 7. During this period, parts of the Western Cape recorded more than 300mm of rain, with mountainous areas experiencing similar rainfall totals.
One fatality was reported in Knysna, Western Cape, and widespread power outages coupled with at least 45 road closures isolated numerous communities. Reports indicated that evacuations were undertaken in Gamtoos Valley after the Kouga dam exceeded its capacity. Over 2,000 people were subsequently evacuated to emergency shelters across South Africa.
The onset of the adverse weather saw rain moving in from the Atlantic across the Western and Northern Cape on Sunday morning. Separately, in the United States and Mexico, temperatures are anticipated to rise 10-15 degrees Celsius above seasonal norms in some regions.
Forecasted Conditions
Large areas of southern South Africa, including the Western and Eastern Cape, are forecast to experience north-westerly to westerly wind gusts exceeding 60 mph (97 km/h) early this week. The South African Weather Service (SAWS) stated that "Very cold, wet and windy conditions are expected over the Eastern Cape, the central and eastern interior of the Western Cape, as well as the southern parts of the Namakwa District in the Northern Cape." SAWS also anticipates "Light snowfall is expected over the mountain tops of the central and eastern Western Cape and the higher-lying areas of the southern Namakwa District." Concurrently, extreme heat warnings are in force elsewhere, with locations such as Palm Springs expecting temperatures to reach 40-43 degrees Celsius (104-110 degrees Fahrenheit) on Monday and Tuesday.
