The African National Congress (ANC), founded in 1912, is facing significant challenges following the 4 November municipal elections, which have been described as the party's first funeral service. This event, termed the "second-last nail" in the party's political coffin by commentator Mondli Makhanya, signals a critical juncture in its long history. Concurrently, the organization's Secretary-General, Fikile Mbalula, is engaged in a court dispute with Nkosazana Dlamini Zuma. Their legal confrontation stems from Ms. Dlamini Zuma's allegations of vote-buying within the party, adding another layer of internal strife to the ANC's current predicament. This confluence of events marks a period of heightened internal and external scrutiny for the ANC, placing its foundational principles and future trajectory under intense examination.
A Legacy Forged in Struggle
The African National Congress (ANC) played a foundational role in shaping South Africa's constitutional democracy, building upon principles first articulated in the Freedom Charter. This seminal document laid the groundwork for a non-racial, democratic South Africa, becoming a guiding vision for the liberation movement. A central figure in this struggle, Nelson Mandela, endured imprisonment from 1962 until his release in 1990, becoming a global symbol of resistance against apartheid. Following the transition to democracy, Mr. Mandela served as the head of state from 1994 to 1999, leading the nation through its initial years of post-apartheid governance. His leadership was key in establishing the new democratic order and promoting reconciliation.
During the decades of exile and the geopolitical complexities of the Cold War, Oliver Tambo was instrumental in maintaining the cohesion of the movement. His leadership ensured the ANC remained a unified and effective force against apartheid, even while operating from outside South Africa's borders. The ANC also championed gender equality, notably ensuring 50% representation of women on its parliamentary candidate lists, a progressive stance that reflected its commitment to inclusive governance. This commitment was foreshadowed by actions such as the 1956 march on the Union Buildings led by Lilian Ngoyi, which involved thousands of women protesting against unjust laws, demonstrating the early and sustained role of women in the liberation struggle. The historical significance of these actions shows the ANC's long-standing dedication to principles of equality and justice, which are now being re-evaluated in the face of contemporary challenges.
Seeds of Decline and Division
The African National Congress (ANC) secured 40.18% of the vote in the 2024 national election, a significant decline from its past electoral performances and a stark indicator of shifting political dynamics within the country. The party also recently lost its Electoral Court appeal after failing to submit the names of 181 municipal candidates by the stipulated deadline. This procedural misstep noted organizational weaknesses and drew sharp criticism. Following this, Eastern Cape ANC secretary Lulama Ngcukayitobi threatened legal action against secretary-general Fikile Mbalula concerning the candidate-list failure, further exposing the internal rifts and power struggles within the party leadership.
The party's trajectory has been marked by differing periods of governance, each leaving its distinct imprint on the organization and the nation. Under former president Thabo Mbeki, who served from 1999 to 2008, South Africa experienced economic growth and employment gains, demonstrating a period of relative stability and progress. This era also saw an expansion of the social wage, aimed at improving the living conditions of the populace. However, a significant shift occurred during the tenure of former president Jacob Zuma, from 2009 to 2018. During this period, patronage reportedly became a viable career path, and factionalism developed into a growth industry within the party, eroding internal unity and public trust. By 2016, voter disengagement was apparent, with attendance at the ANC's manifesto launch significantly declining, signaling a growing disillusionment among its traditional support base. This trend indicated a loss of connection between the party and the electorate, foreshadowing the electoral challenges it would face in subsequent years.
The Unfinished National Question
The African National Congress's (ANC) 1969 Morogoro strategy and tactics established a more rigorous standard, asserting that liberation must extend beyond formal political democracy to include economic emancipation. This foundational principle, articulated during a critical phase of the liberation struggle, posited that true national liberation could not be achieved without addressing systemic economic inequalities. The party's second "funeral service" is anticipated to occur after the 2029 national election, according to predictions by Mondli Makhanya, who described the 4 November event as the "second-last nail" and the 2029 election as the final one. In the 2024 national election, the ANC, Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF), and uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) party collectively drew approximately 64% of the vote, indicating a fragmentation of the liberation movement's traditional support and the rise of new political forces.
Mondli Makhanya attributes a significant rupture within the ANC to 2001, when internal succession battles reportedly began to undermine the party from within. These power struggles, rather than focusing on collective goals, started to poison the organizational fabric, diverting attention and resources from the broader national agenda. The Polokwane conference in 2007 is identified as the culmination of an internal "civil war," from which the party, according to Makhanya, never fully recovered. This period marked a profound shift in the ANC's internal dynamics, moving from a unified liberation movement to one plagued by deep factionalism and infighting. Makhanya foresees a two-stage decline for the ANC, describing the 4 November event as the "second-last nail" and predicting the final one in 2029, suggesting a trajectory of continued erosion of its political dominance and influence. The ongoing challenges, from electoral setbacks to internal legal disputes and allegations of corruption, collectively show the profound difficulties facing the ANC as it navigates a complex political landscape and grapples with its historical legacy and future relevance.